Surprise, AZ short-term rental market report (2026)
Maricopa County, Arizona. Rules, revenue, home values, demand, climate, reach and risk, each figure with its source.
- RulesLight-touch (2/5)
- Average revenue$43K a year
- 4-BR typical value$552K
- Gross yield7.8%
- FEMA riskVery High
- Demand drivers within 50 mi1
Everything STR HUB holds on Surprise, AZ in one place, in the order an investor needs it: whether you can operate, what the numbers are, why and when people come, who can reach it, and what could go wrong.
Every figure comes from a named dataset listed under Sources and method, dated September 21, 2026. Where we do not hold a figure, that part of the report is left out rather than estimated.
Can you operate in Surprise?
What the rating rests on: What a city may do: Require a licence or permit, and require a 24/7 emergency contact.
| Rule | What we hold on file |
|---|---|
| Jurisdiction | City of Surprise |
| Permit or licence | No separate city STR licence identified - verify with city |
| Cap on rentals | None - caps barred by state law (A.R.S. 9-500.39) |
| Lodging and sales taxes | State TPT + county + city lodging tax; TPT licence must list each address |
| Penalties | Up to $500 / $1,000 / $3,500 (or 1/2/3 nights rent) per verified violation |
Rules for Surprise last verified September 20, 2026. Rules change, and a city rating does not cover HOA or deed restrictions. Confirm current requirements with the jurisdiction before you buy or list.
The numbers
Revenue
Gross market averages from STR HUB market analytics, the same figures shown on the market page. They are before cleaning, management, utilities, taxes and financing, and an individual property can earn more or less.
Home values in Maricopa County
Zillow Home Value Index: county-wide typical values for Maricopa County, not list prices. A specific property can sit well above or below them.
Gross yield
Gross yield is before every operating cost and before financing. It is a screening ratio, not a cash-on-cash return.
What it costs to own
Screening figures, not a bill or a quote. The tax rate is a county-wide median for owner-occupied homes (U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2018-2022); second homes and rentals are often taxed more heavily, and a purchase usually resets the assessed value. Expected annual loss is from the FEMA National Risk Index.
Housing market momentum
County-level, for-sale housing market: it says nothing directly about STR bookings. A relative ranking among tracked markets, not a forecast. Sources: Realtor.com Economic Research, U.S. Census Bureau, Zillow Home Value Index.
Why people come
One demand driver sits within 50 miles of Surprise. Ordered by published attendance. Attendance appears only where a source publishes it.
Events
- Cactus League (MLB Spring Training, Arizona)
- When
- February through late March
- Attendance
- 1,590,000 (A record 1.59 million attended games across the 15-team Phoenix-metro league in 2011 (per Wikipedia); a dated figure but attendance has generally trended upward since.)
- STR angle
- A six-week, metro-wide event (not a single venue) that lifts STR demand across greater Phoenix/Scottsdale every February-March, well outside the desert's peak winter-snowbird season.
When they come
Winter-sun climate: at least three comfortable months fall between November and March, and summer highs top 95°F, so winter is the pleasant season. 6 of 12 months have an average high between 60°F and 88°F. Warmest month: July (average high 107°F). Coldest: January (average low 43°F).
- Jan65°43°Comfortable
- Feb67°44°ComfortableEvent
- Mar74°50°ComfortableEvent
- Apr87°60°Comfortable
- May93°68°Hot
- Jun103°77°Hot
- Jul107°85°Hot
- Aug105°83°Hot
- Sep99°77°Hot
- Oct88°63°Hot
- Nov77°53°Comfortable
- Dec65°45°Comfortable
| Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average high (°F) | 65 | 67 | 74 | 87 | 93 | 103 | 107 | 105 | 99 | 88 | 77 | 65 |
| Average low (°F) | 43 | 44 | 50 | 60 | 68 | 77 | 85 | 83 | 77 | 63 | 53 | 45 |
| Precipitation (in) | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Sunshine (hours a day) | 8.6 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 7.9 |
| Event month | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No |
Event months within 50 miles
- February: Cactus League (MLB Spring Training, Arizona)
- March: Cactus League (MLB Spring Training, Arizona)
This is climate and events, not booking data. Monthly normals are 2019-2023 averages from the Open-Meteo Historical Weather API (ERA5 reanalysis) at the market pin. Event months come from the demand drivers listed above. We do not hold monthly occupancy or rate data for this market.
Who can reach it
Largest counties within 150 miles
| County | Population |
|---|---|
| Maricopa County, AZ | 4,430,871 |
| Pima County, AZ | 1,042,393 |
| Pinal County, AZ | 433,338 |
County populations (U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2018-2022) summed for every county whose centre lies within each straight-line radius. Straight lines are shorter than roads, so read these as generous upper bounds, not drive-time counts.
What could go wrong
| Hazard | FEMA rating | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|---|
| River flooding | Very High | 99.9 |
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.6 |
| Hail | Very High | 99.5 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 96.8 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 84.0 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 38.7 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 26.6 |
This is a county-level index, not an insurance quote or a flood-zone determination. A coastal or wildfire-fringe rental can carry far more exposure than its county average suggests. FEMA does not model coastal flooding for this county, which is not the same as zero risk. Get property-level flood, wind and wildfire quotes before you buy.
Market context
Housing and jobs in Maricopa County
U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2018-2022. Vacation-home share is housing units held for seasonal, recreational or occasional use. All three describe the whole county, not one town or neighbourhood.
What is within 15 km of the Surprise pin
Counts of features mapped in OpenStreetMap within 15 km of the market pin. A fixed radius favours dense metros, and map coverage varies by area.
Similar markets
The 4 tracked markets whose numbers sit closest to Surprise's. Each links to its own report.
Closest by normalised distance across the figures both markets hold (typical 4BR value, revenue, occupancy, regulation rating, vacation-home share, tourism job share, 4+ bedroom share, amenity score, population within 300 miles, comfortable months and FEMA risk score). At most 2 of the 4 come from Arizona, so the list is not just the neighbours. Similar numbers do not mean similar rules: check each market's regulation section.
See Surprise on the map
Open Surprise on the National STR Map to see it against its neighbours, switch overlays and run the deal calculator on your own assumptions.
Surprise STR questions, answered from the data
Is Airbnb legal in Surprise?
STR HUB rates Surprise's short-term rental rules 2/5 (Light-touch) on a scale from 1 (relaxed) to 5 (very strict). That rating was derived from the regulation text we hold and has not yet been reviewed by a person. Permit rule on file: No separate city STR licence identified - verify with city. Cap on file: None - caps barred by state law (A.R.S. 9-500.39) Rules change, so confirm current requirements with the local jurisdiction before you buy or list.
How much does an Airbnb make in Surprise?
The average short-term rental in Surprise, AZ grosses $43,000 a year, on a $175 average nightly rate and 67% occupancy. That ranks #79 of the 88 tracked markets with revenue data. It is a gross market average before cleaning, management, taxes and financing, and an individual property can earn more or less.
How much does a 4-bedroom home cost in Surprise?
The typical 4-bedroom home in Maricopa County is valued at $551,940 (Zillow Home Value Index), and the typical home of any size at $456,252, with all-home values down 1.0% over the past year. These are county-wide typical values, not list prices.
What is the gross rental yield in Surprise?
7.8%: average annual short-term rental revenue of $43,000 divided by the county's typical 4-bedroom home value of $551,940. It is before every operating cost and before financing, so treat it as a screening ratio, not a cash-on-cash return.
What brings visitors to Surprise?
One demand driver sits within 50 miles of Surprise: Cactus League (MLB Spring Training, Arizona) (1,590,000 published attendance). Attendance is shown only where a source publishes it, and each driver's source is linked in the report.
Sources and method
- Regulation summary and strictness rating: STR Agent HUB regulation research (official source: surpriseaz.gov).
- Revenue, nightly rate and occupancy: STR Agent HUB market analytics.
- Home values: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), county level. Data provided by Zillow Group.
- Housing, employment and population figures: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates, 2018-2022.
- Natural hazard risk: FEMA National Risk Index, county level.
- Amenity counts: © OpenStreetMap contributors.
- Climate normals: Open-Meteo Historical Weather API (CC BY 4.0), 2019-2023 averages.
- Demand drivers: each entry links its own published source in the list above.
Figures come from the STR HUB national dataset dated September 21, 2026 and this page is regenerated whenever that dataset is rebuilt. County-level figures describe Maricopa County as a whole, not one street or neighbourhood. The Opportunity Score (0-100) is a screening heuristic that weighs revenue (35%), regulatory climate (25%), tourism employment (15%), nearby amenities (15%) and large-home supply (10%) relative to the other tracked markets.
Confirm before you act. Short-term rental rules change. Confirm current requirements with the jurisdiction, and work with a licensed local agent who knows which properties can legally operate. This report is screening data, not investment, legal or tax advice.
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